According to: "the preparation of the 14th five year plan" energy plan is imminent. The National Energy Administration organized written research on authoritative experts in the energy field around the key issues of the 14th five year plan. Professor Zeng Ming, director of the energy Internet research center of North China Electric Power University, as one of the invited main experts, answered 18 key questions related to six aspects of energy planning during the 14th five year plan. Based on the idea of opening the door to planning, Professor Zeng Ming's answers to the key questions of the "14th five year plan" energy planning are sorted out below for reference and exchange among relevant experts and scholars in the energy field.

The following is Professor Zeng Ming's answers to the 18 key questions of the "14th five year plan" energy planning, which are summarized as follows:

On energy development in the 14th five year plan

1. Standing at a new historical starting point, how to view the positioning of the energy industry in the national economic and social development during the 14th five year plan? What new missions will the energy industry face in the 14th five year plan? What landmark achievements should the new energy security strategy of "four revolutions and one cooperation" achieve in the 14th five year plan? In a situation that has not changed in a century, what major changes are facing domestic and international energy development in the 14th five year plan? During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the new energy security strategy of "four revolutions and one cooperation" should be implemented. In terms of energy supply, to realize multi energy complementarity, it should be the supply of overall system optimization and multi energy complementarity; In the field of energy consumption, we should focus on improving energy efficiency and use market-oriented, diversified, intelligent and customized means to enable users to get more low-cost energy and reduce the negative impact of various energy consumption on the environment; In terms of energy system reform, during the "14th five year plan" period, we should really, greatly and substantively promote energy system reform in accordance with the direction of marketization; In terms of energy technology innovation, we should focus on the integration of current information technology and various technologies in the energy field, and achieve substantive results in the general direction of information technology promoting energy technology; For international cooperation in the field of energy, there should be more significant substantive progress in energy interconnection. In the face of great changes that have not been seen in a century, internationally, clean energy will be adopted in a large proportion, the proportion of traditional energy will be lower and lower, energy efficiency will be greatly improved, and countries will attach great importance to energy security. In China, the energy supply side pays more attention to multi energy complementarity, and the phenomenon of separate supply and low level of complementarity of various energy sources will be improved. On the energy demand side, users' demand for comprehensive energy services will continue to increase, that is, multiple energy sources will be integrated and integrated to provide services for users. Only in this way can we continuously improve the operation efficiency of the whole energy system, continuously reduce the negative impact of energy consumption, production capacity and other links on the environment, and make energy greener, lower carbon, more efficient Safer.

2. What are the weaknesses or prominent problems in energy development, energy distribution and flow direction during the 13th five year plan? What are the respective priorities of the comprehensive energy planning and sub field (coal, oil, gas, electricity and new energy) planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period in resolving the above contradictions and filling up the weaknesses? During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the energy layout and flow direction are mainly West to East Power transmission and west to east gas transmission, and a large amount of coal is also transmitted from the northwest to the central and southeast regions, which is in line with the 13th five year plan Energy supply and demand during the period. In the last year of the 13th five year plan, one of the weaknesses is to continuously reduce China's dependence on large-scale energy transfer such as power transmission from west to East, which should be overcome during the energy planning period of the 14th five year plan. During the "14th five year plan" period, on the one hand, we should continue to pay attention to some large energy bases, on the other hand, we should also pay attention to the local development and use of various energy sources such as decentralized energy in the Middle East. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the energy demand side in improving the comprehensive utilization efficiency of energy, electricity and other energy consumption. Paying attention to the role of demand response resources in regulating the matching of energy supply and demand, and bringing demand response resources into the planning as an important resource is an issue that must be seriously considered in the 14th five year plan. At the same time, we should pay attention to comprehensive energy planning. For the planning of multiple energy sources, we should consider how to coordinate and complement, comprehensively optimize and comprehensively plan. 3. How to coordinate the development of coal, oil, gas, electricity and new energy in the 14th five year plan? How to give better play to the collaborative optimization of large energy systems? In addition to the total amount, structure and other index constraints, what are the principled requirements or boundary conditions for the scale and layout of energy projects, the optimization of energy flow direction and the layout of transmission channels? There are the following problems in how to coordinate and optimize the development of coal, oil, gas, electricity and new energy: the first is the system problem. The current system is managed by each department, and the system is not smooth; The second is the problem of mechanism, the problem of regulation mechanism, and the lack of regulation mechanism of each energy system; The third is policy support; Others are technical support, and multi energy collaboration needs the support of technical platform; In addition, the price signal of multiple energy sources in the market is difficult to promote the coordinated development of multiple energy sources. In future market construction, it is necessary to explore the possibility of multiple energy varieties trading in the same market. The prices of various types of energy can be converted through one media to form a price signal with common media conversion that all types of users can see and compare with each other, which is also an important issue for the coordination and optimization of multiple energy sources in the large system.

On energy transformation in the 14th five year plan

1. How to reasonably grasp the rhythm of future energy transformation? Clarify the direction and path of energy transformation in the 14th five year plan and the positioning of various energy varieties in the system. How to coordinate the relationship between energy transformation and the smooth transition of traditional industries? For China's national conditions, energy transformation is a gradual process, a process, not a mutation. In the whole transformation process, we should pay special attention to the complementarity of multiple energy sources rather than separation. For example, the proportion of clean energy or non-aqueous renewable energy represented by scenery in a few years must be considered from the perspective of comprehensive energy system and multi energy complementarity, so as to promote the gradual transformation of the energy system to clean, green and low-carbon. In the integrated energy system, fossil energy such as coal power needs to be complementary to renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and promote the gradual increase of the proportion of renewable energy, so as to reduce the abandonment of wind and light, and develop new energy more safely, efficiently and economically. Specific path, First, we should study places with rich scenery resources (such as Northwest China) and places with rich water resources (for example, Southwest China) and other places rich in renewable energy, how to complement and package with traditional fossil energy power generation, make plans and plans under the optimization of the overall energy supply system, and gradually expand the capacity on the supply side. The second path is that after wind, light and other renewable energy are packaged with traditional energy, a variety of energy storage technologies can also be considered, including How to store energy on the power generation side, on the power grid side and on the demand side, take the energy storage into account, and then realize the analysis and calculation of the overall optimization of the system. Next, we should make clear the key issues such as different types of users on the demand side, which users can use how much green electricity, how to use electricity according to the load curve of renewable energy such as scenery after installing various energy storage technologies, and the corresponding potential. Only by identifying such potential can the energy transformation be implemented step by step according to this path.

2. What is the impact of energy transformation on the energy economy of the whole society? How to coordinate the relationship between energy transformation and development and economic affordability? The economic cost of energy transformation must be considered, otherwise the whole national economy can not bear it. In the planning, we should pay special attention to the economic issues of energy transformation. To promote energy transformation and build a comprehensive energy system, we should grasp the following points: first, we should continuously improve the efficiency of energy consumption, and continuously improve the efficiency of various users and energy consumption at the terminal; Second, the energy consumption cost of end users should be continuously reduced and the energy consumption economy should be continuously improved; Third, we should minimize the negative impact of energy consumption, including production capacity, on the environment, that is, emission reduction; Fourth, we should keep the energy structure low-carbon and increase the proportion of renewable energy; Finally, the reliability of energy consumption should be guaranteed. Therefore, the relationship between energy transformation and energy consumption, and between energy transformation and national economy is actually that these five objectives are well coordinated, especially the reduction of energy cost. We must not prematurely increase the proportion of clean energy or renewable energy without considering the economic cost. Therefore, we must coordinate the objectives of these five aspects.

3. The direction of smart energy system construction and the focus of the 14th five year plan. First, the construction direction of smart energy system focuses on the demand side and energy consumption side. Second, it is necessary to support the construction of smart energy system with information technology, including cloud big things mobile intelligence, blockchain, etc. Third, the smart energy system must be a comprehensive energy system, not a single energy system, that is, a system that includes electric, hot water and air conditioning. In addition, the construction of this system first needs to consider planning, not just operation and scheduling. The maximum benefit of the complementary comprehensive energy system appears at the system planning level. If the configuration and important structure of various capacities of the system are not handled properly at the planning level, and the scheduling is optimized at the operation stage, the space for optimization is very small. Therefore, the most important thing for the smart energy system is to seriously consider the integration of multiple energy sources on the supply side and demand side in the energy planning of the 14th five year plan, and use Yunda's material intelligence transfer technology to support, so as to achieve the coordination of the five objectives of improving energy efficiency, improving reliability, reducing energy cost, carbon emission and reducing pollutants. 03

On energy consumption and related policies

What new features will emerge in the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the 14th five year plan? How can traditional and emerging industries drive the growth of energy demand in the 14th five year plan? During the 14th five year plan, energy consumption will pay more attention to the complementary utilization of multiple energies, so as to improve energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions and energy consumption costs, and market-oriented energy trading and consumption behavior will continue to increase. At the same time, the demand response ability of users' energy consumption will also continue to improve. Under these factors, the relationship between energy consumption and economy will be very different from before. In the past, energy consumption was basically rigid. Energy consumption can be basically judged according to the amount, mode and speed of economic growth. The relationship between economic growth or power demand of various users and economy in the 14th five year plan is not the relationship between the 13th five year plan and before. It is necessary to carefully study the impact of various factors on the demand of various energy users. Only in this way can we make the planning more accurate and implement it. 2. Policy suggestions on improving the "double control" of total energy consumption and intensity and the coal consumption control system in key areas during the 14th five year plan. How to design a flexible total consumption control system for areas with energy consumption intensity up to standard and rapid economic development? For key areas of pollution prevention and control, should we control the total coal consumption or bulk coal consumption? Measures and suggestions to deal with the possible risks of large-scale dependence on external energy. During the "14th five year plan" period, we should not rigidly give dual control indicators to each province. It is difficult to predict the economic development. There are many fluctuation factors. If the double control indicators are directly given, the actual implementation effect may not be very good. In some places, economic development is relatively fast, some places consume more energy, or have more negative impact on the environment, or there is a shortage of external resources. Therefore, the setting of development indicators cannot be rigid or one size fits all. The setting of control indicators should consider the five objectives of "two high and three low" for the development of energy system, and consider the characteristics of different regions to solve the key problems faced by energy development in different regions. Each of the five objectives has its own focus. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, for the energy efficiency goal, the "double control" should give more consideration to energy efficiency. When the energy efficiency is high, it is allowed to use more. If the energy efficiency is low, it is necessary to control the total amount and improve energy efficiency. The second goal is cost, which is an economic problem. If the energy consumption cost is high, it is necessary to improve energy efficiency through various services and various technological progress to reduce the energy consumption cost for users. Environmental pollution also depends on the environmental affordability of various places. Therefore, the "double control" indicators should be adjusted in different regions, and then the intermediate process control should be adjusted accordingly. 3. How to embody the energy conservation priority strategy in energy planning and what is the specific focus? What are the suggestions on specific measures to strengthen demand side management? Saving first means giving priority to energy conservation, which is an important consideration in the 14th five year plan. Saving refers to the reduction of unit energy intensity, that is, the energy consumption per unit of national economic output value, not the total amount. Those with high efficiency should be encouraged to use more energy, while those with low efficiency should be limited. In the whole planning, energy efficiency is the top priority. Therefore, on the issue of energy efficiency, especially on the demand side of various users in the "14th five year plan", it is necessary to make demand response resource planning, coordinate with supply side resources, and finally realize comprehensive resource planning, that is, comprehensively consider demand side resources and supply side resources, The energy planning of the 14th five year plan should be done according to the comprehensive resource planning model.

On energy supply and security

1. What kind of energy security concept should be established in combination with the characteristics of China's energy consumption and resources and the phased characteristics of energy development in the 14th five year plan? The concept of energy security should have several connotations. First, the narrow concept of energy security refers to the supply of oil and gas and the security of energy imported from the world. Second, the broad concept of energy security is to consider the exploitation, transportation and use of all kinds of energy on the narrow basis, and coordinate the negative impact on the environment, which also belongs to the issue of energy security. In addition, some safety of the system, especially the operation safety of the power system, should be considered in the emergency of energy supply and demand. The security of the power system is also attached great importance now. Internationally, due to the war, the power system is also destroyed, which is also a security issue. There are the security of the power development environment, the physical security of the power system, and the security under the international political background of oil and gas import, which need to be considered. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, power system security should seriously consider the close combination of centralized power generation, long-distance transmission, distributed generation and local consumption. The combination of centralized and distributed, long-distance transmission and local consumption can only support energy security.

2. What characteristics should be highlighted in the energy supply guarantee scheme of the 14th five year plan? Energy supply guarantee is to consider the coordination between centralized and distributed, how to gradually reduce the proportion of oil and gas, and how to increase the proportion of renewable energy and new energy. It should be considered annually in the planning, as well as the impact on the environment. In addition, energy storage should also be considered, including technological breakthrough, cost innovation and market transaction of energy storage. These are important measures to ensure the security of energy supply. At the same time, we should also consider the resources on the demand side, so that users can adjust their energy consumption mode.

3. How to judge the impact of factors such as the continuous expansion of the scale of petrochemical industry, the export of refined oil and petrochemical products and the rise of crude oil import on energy security? What are the suggestions for relevant industrial policies? How to scientifically evaluate the relationship between China's coal resource development potential and medium and long-term coal consumption, that is, according to the current coal consumption scale and structure, whether the proved resource reserves can meet the future coal demand? What are the shortcomings in energy reserve and emergency capacity-building? How should the 14th five year plan be supplemented? How to dredge the cost of system reserve and emergency capacity-building? For the coal issue, there should be no problem comparing the demand for coal and the supply capacity of coal during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The key is to consider the environmental problems brought by coal consumption. From the perspective of power generation, coal combustion is strictly limited. However, during the "14th five year plan" period in the future, the most basic safe power supply and system guarantee operation will depend on thermal power. In addition, coal power will be considered as renewable energy for peak shaving. For the issue of reserves, the main consideration is oil and gas reserves. According to the judgment of the international situation, what is the need for oil and gas