During the 13th Five Year Plan period, China's power industry overcame difficulties and made continuous innovation, achieved a great leap, met the power demand of economic and social development, presented new characteristics in the development of power industry, and laid the foundation for the high-quality development of power industry. The 14th five year plan is a key period for China to move forward from building a well-off society in an all-round way to basically realizing socialist modernization. It is of great significance to formulate and implement the 14th five year plan.

1、 The development of power industry presents new characteristics

The installed structure of power supply continues to develop to clean and low-carbon. On the one hand, the development of non fossil energy has entered the stage of large-scale "incremental substitution". Half of the world's new non fossil energy installed capacity in 2018 is in China. By the end of 2018, the installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation had reached 770 million KW, accounting for 40.8% of the total installed capacity; The power generation is 2.16 trillion kwh, accounting for 30.9% of the full caliber power generation, an increase of 6 percentage points and 3.7 percentage points respectively compared with 2015. On the other hand, the proportion of thermal power units with large capacity, high parameters, energy conservation and environmental protection in China has increased significantly. By the end of 2018, units with a single thermal power unit of 600000 kW or above accounted for 44.8%; Further strengthen the transformation of energy conservation and emission reduction. By the end of 2018, about 810 million kilowatts of coal-fired power units had reached the ultra-low emission limit, and the emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and soot per unit thermal power generation were reduced to 0.20g, 0.19g and 0.04g respectively, so as to promote the release of high-quality coal-fired power production capacity; The efficiency of coal-fired power generation has been greatly improved, and the average coal consumption of thermal power supply has decreased to 308 g / kWh, a decrease of 60 g / kWh compared with 2006, a decrease of 16%.

The electrification level of terminal energy consumption has been continuously improved. In 2018, the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption reached 25.5%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points over 2010; From 2016 to 2018, a total of 392.3 billion kwh of alternative electricity was completed, showing an increasing trend year by year. With the increasing implementation of electric energy substitution, the electrification level in key fields such as industrial production and manufacturing, transportation, residents' life and construction will be steadily improved. Especially with the rapid development of electric vehicles, the electrification in the field of transportation will be comprehensively accelerated.

Digital and intelligent technology is gradually integrated into the power system, and the system flexibility is continuously enhanced. Electric power enterprises actively promote the integration of new generation information technology and digital technology achievements with industry. Among the first 55 energy Internet demonstration projects in China, 14 projects have passed the acceptance; State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) proposed to build a "ubiquitous power Internet of things", and actively explored and achieved outstanding results in the aspects of source network load storage ubiquitous dispatching control, online business handling, modern intelligent supply chain, construction of comprehensive demonstration area, etc; Power generation enterprises actively promote the flexibility transformation of coal and electricity, Huaneng Dandong Power Plant 2 × The minimum technical output of 350000 kW units reaches 20%, and Zhuanghe power plant of national energy group 2 × The minimum technical output of 600000 kW unit has reached 30%, reaching the international advanced level; Since the implementation of power demand side management in the industrial field in 2016, it has saved 30 million kw of power investment, transferred more than 4 million kw of peak load in summer and winter, and reduced the power consumption cost of enterprises by more than 150 billion yuan.

One belt, one road initiative is the foundation and support for international cooperation in energy and power. One belt, one road, has been invested in the energy and power infrastructure investment in China and the other countries along the line. In 2013~2018, China's main power companies have invested 10 billion 700 million US dollars in the "one belt and one way" international cooperation, and signed 622 contracts for the power project contract, with a total sum of 116 billion 700 million US dollars. All power enterprises continue to promote the establishment of an international capacity cooperation model of "going out" in all aspects of technology, standards, equipment and management; The concept of global one is widely recognized. One belt, one road, the 2030 agenda of the UN and the implementation framework of the Paris agreement have been put forward to provide solutions for the coordinated development of international energy, electricity and economic and social environment. The power cooperation in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor has become increasingly close, the level of cooperation between China and ASEAN countries has been continuously improved, and the international power capacity cooperation between China, Russia, China and Northeast Asia has been steadily promoted.

Steady and solid progress was made in the reform of the power system. The proportion of market-oriented transaction scale has increased significantly. In the first 10 months of 2019, the national market transaction power reached 2.2 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 30%; 31 power trading institutions nationwide have registered more than 100000 market entities; All 8 pilot projects in the spot electricity market have started settlement and trial operation; The reform of incremental distribution business has been accelerated. At present, more than 40% of the approved pilot projects have established owners and more than 60 pilot projects have been put into operation; In the electricity price reform, the cost supervision and review of transmission and distribution electricity price in the second regulatory cycle has been started, and the problems of electricity price mechanism such as cross subsidy have been gradually cleared up.

2、 Understanding of problems related to power development in the 14th five year plan

There is a large room for growth in power demand. China's economy is in the middle and late stage of industrialization and rapid urbanization, which determines the continuous rigid growth of power demand. Taking electricity as the center to change the mode of energy production and consumption is the inevitable requirement of clean energy development and the inevitable result of clean substitution. It determines that China's power demand is still in a long growth period and has a large growth space. The main factors affecting the growth rate of power demand in the 14th five year plan are as follows: first, the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, the growth rate of traditional power consumption industry will decline, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry and modern service industry will become the main driving force of power consumption growth; Second, the construction of new urbanization will promote the rigid growth of power demand. In the future, the proportion of power consumption in the western region will be increased, and the eastern and central regions will still be the focus of power load in China; The third is the transformation and development of energy, showing an obvious electrification trend and great potential for power substitution; Fourth, the deepening of the energy consumption revolution, the upgrading of industrial structure and technological innovation will inhibit the growth of power consumption to a certain extent; Fifth, implement the ubiquitous power Internet of things strategy. In terms of power demand response management, the load growth rate can be lower than the power growth rate, bringing huge economic and social benefits.

The medium and long-term power demand in China is analyzed and predicted by using various prediction methods such as output value unit consumption method, power elasticity coefficient method and per capita power consumption method. It is estimated that the power consumption of the whole society will reach 9.2 ~ 9.5 trillion kwh in 2025, and the average annual growth rate during the "14th five year plan" period will be about 4.0% ~ 4.5%. In 2035, the power consumption of the whole society will be about 12 trillion kwh, with an average annual growth rate of about 3% from 2020 to 2035, and gradually transition to the saturation stage of power consumption growth.

The power supply structure is clean and the low-carbon degree is further improved. Combined with the economic and social development, power consumption structure, demand side management and other factors in various regions of China, based on the mature period of energy storage technology, it is expected that the total installed capacity of power supply will reach 2.7 billion kw in 2025, the installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation will account for 48%, and the installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation will account for 37%. In 2035, the installed capacity of power supply will reach 3.8 billion kw, and the power generation capacity of non fossil energy will comprehensively exceed that of fossil energy.

With the sustained and rapid development of new energy, the problem of consumption should be paid attention to. The progress of new energy technology has accelerated and the cost has decreased significantly. Over the past five years, the cost of wind power development and utilization has decreased by about 30%, and the price of photovoltaic modules has decreased by about half. It is expected that provinces with superior resources can realize parity Internet access as soon as 2020. In the future, new energy will show a sustained and rapid development trend. It is estimated that by 2025, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach 700 million KW, the proportion of power generation will be close to 15%, and some provinces will exceed 30%.

With the rapid development of new energy in China, the wind rejection rate has reached 17.2% and the light rejection rate has reached 13.0%. In recent years, a series of measures have been taken to effectively alleviate the problem of power abandonment. However, in provinces and regions with a high proportion of new energy power generation, the problem of consumption is still prominent. For example, in 2018, the proportion of new energy power generation in Gansu and Xinjiang was only 20% and 15%, the wind rejection rate was as high as 19% and 23%, and the light rejection rate was 10% and 16% respectively. For the future large-scale development of new energy, great attention should be paid to the problem of consumption. Solving the problem of new energy consumption involves many aspects such as power supply, power grid, users, policies and technology. We need to take multiple measures to improve the system regulation and consumption capacity. In the near future, on the power supply side, various flexible regulation power supplies such as pumped storage power station and natural gas peak shaving power station can be built through the implementation of coal power flexibility transformation to improve the system regulation capacity. Build trans regional transmission channels at the power grid side, improve the construction of regional main grid and intelligent distribution network, use the role of power grid basic platform to implement multi energy complementarity and combined intelligent dispatching of cold, heat and electricity, and make full use of trans provincial regulation resources. On the user side, strengthen demand side management, implement time of use tariff in peak and valley, develop various flexible power loads and intelligent appliances, and realize peak shifting and valley filling. In terms of market mechanism, establish renewable energy target guidance system, improve auxiliary service compensation mechanism, start green certificate trading mechanism, and adopt power generation right trading, inter provincial market trading, etc. In the long run, it will further strengthen the R & D, promotion and application of high-capacity, high-efficiency, low-cost and long-life energy storage technology, and make full use of the charge and discharge function of electric vehicles to enhance the system regulation ability.

Promote the safe and efficient development of nuclear power and effectively replace the installed capacity of coal power. Compared with new energy and coal power, nuclear power has comparative advantages. Economically, the on grid price of some nuclear power has been lower than the benchmark price of local desulfurization coal power, and also lower than the current cost of new energy and energy allocation and storage; In terms of power generation characteristics, nuclear power has high energy density and stable output. It can independently bear the basic load and effectively replace the installed capacity of coal power, which is conducive to the stability of the system; In terms of environmental protection, nuclear power does not emit greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, harmful gases such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, and pollutants such as dust. According to the current situation of nuclear power construction, the installed capacity of nuclear power will be about 53 million KW by 2020. In order to effectively control the installed capacity of coal-fired power, we expect that the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 89 million KW and 137 million KW respectively in 2025 and 2030, and 6 ~ 8 nuclear power units will be put into operation every year.

In order to ensure the safe and efficient development of nuclear power and establish the brand advantages of nuclear power, the first suggestion is to establish the strategic position of nuclear power and maintain the pace of nuclear power construction. According to the two national centennial development goals, study the strategic plan for the development of nuclear power in the new era, organize the formulation of the overall development strategy of nuclear power in 2035, and determine the development goals of each stage. We will continue to strengthen independent R & D and innovation and further enhance our independent ability. Second, we should increase support for nuclear power and improve relevant supporting policies. Support the financing policy of nuclear power enterprises, and promote the post collection of nuclear power special construction fund and spent fuel disposal fund. Pricing shall be based on the principle of cost plus reasonable profit to ensure the priority of nuclear power on the Internet, focus on base load operation and improve utilization efficiency. Third, we should cultivate an excellent nuclear safety culture and establish and improve the nuclear power standard system. Innovate the public communication mode, strengthen nuclear power science popularization, improve the nuclear science literacy of the whole people, and eliminate the public's nuclear fear. Strengthen the construction of nuclear power standardization, integrate domestic advantageous resources, form an industrial alliance in external promotion and brand building, establish an "international team" of nuclear power, and further improve the ability of "going global".

Make overall plans to promote the high-quality development of hydropower in Southwest China. China's three provinces (regions) of Sichuan, Yunnan and Tibet are extremely rich in hydropower resources. At present, the development rate is less than 38%. Compared with developed countries, there is still much room for development.

In recent years, the development of hydropower industry has faced many problems, such as great pressure on ecological and environmental protection, high difficulty in resettlement, continuous rise of economic burden and construction cost. Therefore, it is suggested to strengthen unified planning and overall coordination to realize the consumption of hydropower in a wider range; Strengthen the overall planning and construction of hydropower basin and improve the overall benefits of the basin; Strengthen the resettlement management and earnestly implement the resettlement of hydropower resettlement; Improve the hydropower tax policy and promote the healthy development of hydropower enterprises; Increase financial policy support and speed up the construction of hydropower in Southwest China. It is estimated that by 2025, the installed capacity of conventional hydropower will reach 400 million KW, of which southwest hydropower accounts for more than 90% of the new capacity in China.

The role of coal power in the system will change to electricity and power regulated power supply. China's coal based resource endowment and coal power are the best utilization methods of clean, efficient, economic and convenient coal, which determines that coal power will still play an important role in China's energy and power system in a certain period of time. In order to support a larger scale of new energy consumption and system operation, coal-fired power units need to provide more system regulation services and undertake more system peak shaving, frequency modulation, voltage regulation and standby functions. Their market positioning will gradually change from the traditional main power supply providing power to the power supply providing reliable capacity, power and flexibility.

In the future, coal power still has a certain development space. Coal power development space should meet both power balance and power balance. From the perspective of power balance, at present, the utilization hours of coal power are only about 4300 hours, while the utilization hours of coal power units can reach 5000 hours or even higher, which has great power growth potential. Considering other new power sources, new coal power projects can not be arranged; From the perspective of power balance, due to the low effective capacity of new energy power generation. In order to meet the requirements of power balance, it is necessary to build a certain scale of thermal power (coal power) installed capacity to "support the bottom and ensure supply". We expect that the installed capacity of coal power can be controlled within 1.2 ~ 1.25 billion kw in 2025 and reach the peak in 2030.

The green and low-carbon transformation of energy is not simply "de coal", and the increase of coal power installation is not equal to the increase of carbon emissions. First, implement electric energy substitution and optimize energy consumption. At present, there are still about 700 million tons of coal directly burned in China for heating or heating load, reducing bulk coal for power generation, and carbon emission has not increased. The second is to reduce the coal consumption of coal-fired power units through technological innovation. Third, serve new energy power generation and change the mode of coal power utilization. Coal power "makes way" for new energy power generation, and the utilization hours have decreased from 5030 hours in 2010 to 4300 hours at present, a decrease of 15%; With the large-scale development of new energy, the utilization hours of coal power will further decline, and the installed carbon emission of coal power will show an obvious downward trend. The calculation and analysis show that the carbon emission of coal power has basically entered the platform period, will reach the peak in 2025, and then will accelerate the decline.

Improve the comprehensive regulation capacity of the system from the supply side and the consumption side. In China, the installed capacity of flexible regulation power sources such as pumped storage and gas-fired power generation accounts for less than 6%, and that of the "Three North" areas rich in new energy is less than 3%. The regulation capacity is inherently insufficient. The pumped storage power station is limited by station site resources and construction period, gas power is limited by gas source gas price, and energy storage is limited by economic security, so it does not have the conditions for large-scale construction. The flexible transformation of coal power is a realistic choice to improve the regulation capacity of the system. The operation experience at home and abroad shows that the coal power flexibility transformation technology is mature; In terms of economy, the cost of increasing the peak shaving capacity per kilowatt is about 500 yuan ~ 1500 yuan, which has comparative advantages over pumped storage, gas power and energy storage. At present, there is still a big gap between the overall completion of the flexible transformation and the objectives of the 13th five year plan. The compensation policy of auxiliary services in Northeast China has strong incentive and high degree of completion; Northwest and North China completed less. To promote the flexible transformation of coal and electricity, first, we should increase the compensation for auxiliary services. In 2018, China's auxiliary service compensation fee accounted for only 0.83% of the total online electricity fee, far lower than 2.5% in the PJM market in the United States and 8% in the United Kingdom. Second, improve the compensation policy, comprehensively consider the increased transformation cost, operation and maintenance cost and lost opportunity cost of enterprises, effectively ensure the reasonable income of coal-fired power projects, and stimulate the enthusiasm of flexible transformation of coal-fired power enterprises